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An Insight into Demand

Adam Arkley

Entry posted by Adam Arkley in ATC Training ·

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When I was appointed to this post, I committed to being transparent with you all about all manner of different things. Specifically, I've committed to give everybody a view on the demand that ATC training is facing, at all ratings. Thanks to my colleagues in our Tech team, I have some data now that I can share with you. However, before we dive into any detail, it's worth saying that we can only work with the data that we have. We might draw many inferences from that data, but we'll never have a totally clear view on what's happening for myriad reasons. Nonetheless...

Total Joiners

Approximately 8,500 people signed up to VATSIM in the last 30 days. This includes all regions, for people who intend to fly, people who intend to control and people that do both. I have no access to historic data, but I suspect that a good number of these people are post-Christmas registrants who have either been gifted a simulator for the first time or purchased a simulator for themselves. Within that, we might consider there are two demographic groups; those who have purchased a simulator for themselves are likely (but not definitively!) to be more invested in this as a hobby than someone who has been gifted the simulator.

We do have historic data for the division. I asked our Tech colleagues to help me look back to 2019, so that we could try to get some insight - albeit not much - of what our registration numbers looked like before Covid, during Covid and after Covid. Those numbers are as follows:

The following represents the total number of people joining the division in the specified years:
2019 - 3,593
2020 – 5,900
2021 – 3,834
2022 - 2,141
2023 - 2,051

I also asked to see this data only for 2023 broken down by month:
Jan 2023 - 130
Feb 2023 - 121
Mar 2023 - 177
Apr 2023 - 165
May 2023 - 162
Jun 2023 - 153
Jul 2023 - 202
Aug 2023 - 237
Sep 2023 - 238
Oct 2023 - 157
Nov 2023 - 161
Dec 2023 - 148

From another, different colleague at the Region, I was also shown some statistics for the first half-and-a-bit of January this year. In the first 18 days of the year, the division saw 232 new registrants according to centralised .Net data.

We need to be careful with these numbers. There is seemingly an anomaly with the data (232 registrants in 18 days vs 130 in a month the previous year) and we think we have a good reason for this; our Tech colleagues believe data will only appear in CTS if a member completes the P0 registration exam. Subsequently, we can draw our second inference: it's entirely possible that if we extrapolate 151 to the full month of Jan (just over 1.75x), roughly 415 members joined VATSIM and selected VATSIM UK as their desired division. However, on the assumption that Jan 2024 was no different from Jan 2023 (and why would it be? No new sims, no new software, no huge advertising campaign), then we might assume that just under 1/3 of registrants never complete their P0 exam.

Demand on ATC Training

Selfishly, I care more specifically about the impact on ATC Training - that is, after all, my primary role here. Alongside data for all members joining the division in the previous four years, I also asked Tech to provide me with the number of people that joined TGNC in each year:

2019 Total: 3,593
2019 TGNC Joiners: 586

2020 Total: 5,900
2020 TGNC Joiners: 1,061

2021 Total: 3,834
2021 TGNC Joiners: 836

2022 Total: 2,141
2022 TGNC Joiners: 759

2023 Total: 2,051
2023 TGNC Joiners: 844

Again, a quick caveat: these numbers do not represent the number of people who joined the division in a given year and immediately joined TGNC: it's possible that a joiner to TGNC in 2019 joined the network in 2007! Some quick snapshots, then: If we consider that the Covid pandemic 'ended' in 2021, in that most things had returned to normal and there were no routine controls on our living and working conditions, 2022 and 2023 were about even for people joining VATSIM - a difference of 4.3% in the number of new registrants. However, the number of people joining TGNC is more significant different between those years: an 11% rise (if my maths is right!) on TGNC joiners from 2022 to 2023. To look at those numbers in a different way, 35% of registrants to VATSIM UK in 2022 joined TGNC; 41% did in 2023.

What I find particularly interesting is that the significant spike in joiners to the division in 2020 didn't see a proportionate increase in the number of people joining TGNC - whilst we can absolutely say that there was a (notable) increase, I'm intrigued that the increase is disproportionate. I cannot explain why!

These are challenging numbers. January this year was a great month for TGNC. We saw 16 rating upgrades - a great number, particularly bearing in mind the department was officially shut until the 8th Jan. Let's assume, however, that it's a typical month and compare that with the number of people who joined TGNC for each month in 2023:

Jan 2023 - 66
Feb 2023 - 38
Mar 2023 - 77
Apr 2023 - 67
May 2023 - 70
Jun 2023 - 64
Jul 2023 - 75
Aug 2023 - 92
Sep 2023 - 84
Oct 2023 - 84
Nov 2023 - 67
Dec 2023 - 60

This begins to demonstrate demand. OBS > S1 is, in some ways, the easiest rating for candidates to obtain. The team have prepared a very clear process for obtaining a rating, whereby students attend a seminar, then participate in four pre-prepared and planned lessons. In most cases, students will pass their exam after these four sessions - or five including the seminar. There is no other rating which people will obtain after only five sessions, other than fast-track candidates. But, despite that, even in our 'slowest' month for new joiners, the waiting list is growing at more than twice the rate we progress students. Taking a mean average of those months from last year, that rate increases to four-times.

Our waiting list is growing four-times faster than we can process rating upgrades.

Of course, we must once again take these numbers with a pinch of salt. It is very likely that people will sign up to TGNC and then never be seen again, particularly given the length of the waiting list. Whilst I'm convinced that this happens, we have very few metrics to deterministically count people out of the waiting list.

Ongoing demand

Of course, the problem does not end at TGNC. Owing to the sheer volume at which we see people in at the beginning of the process and the increasing complexity of ratings, there are significant delays across all of ATC Training in VATSIM UK. Currently:

In TG Tower, nine students have training places. This is temporarily reduced owing to the preparation of a new training structure which we hope will expedite training. The average wait for those students currently training amounted to 1,045 days (2.9 years). The maximum wait was 1,483 days and the shortest was 885 days.

For those students in TG Tower who achieved rating upgrades in 2023, the average student required 14 sessions to pass their examination, although this includes fast-track candidates. The average student took 362 days to obtain their rating upgrade from the start of training, although this includes two statistical anomalies where students began their training and had to stop for some reason or another.

In TG App, 14 students have training places. The average wait for those students currently training amounted to 673 days (1.8  years). The maximum wait was 1,087 days and the shortest was 425 days.

For those students in TG App who achieved their rating upgrades in 2023, the average student required 12 sessions, although this again includes fast-track candidates. The average student took 140 days to obtain their rating upgrade from the start of training.

In TG Enroute, five students have training places. The average way for those students currently training is 742 days (2 years). The maximum wait was 1,147 days and the shortest was 158 days.

For those students in TG Enroute who achieved their rating upgrades in 2023, the average student required 14 sessions, although this again includes fast-track candidates. The average student took 582 days to obtain their rating upgrade from the start of training, although this includes a statistical anomalies where a student began their training and had to stop for some reason or another.

Summary

I hope this provides some insight to the community at large as to the delays inn ATC Training and their causes. Of course, the real challenge is to find ways in which we can reduce these training times, reduce the number of sessions required and process more rating upgrades. We will only ever be able to do so much - the division is dependent solely on the willingness of volunteers to devote their time to the mentoring of students and that of examiners to perform examinations. Whilst these training delays are undesirable, the division has long prided itself on quality and I am working hard with my teams to ensure efficient training whilst not reducing the quality of our students.

If you're reading this and rated S2 or higher and are interested in mentoring, please feel free to approach one of the Training Group leads, myself or @William Jennings:

TGNC - @John Batten, @Stephen Lee or @James Taylor
TG Tower - @Will Hinshaw
TG Approach - @Samuel Lefevre
TG Enroute - @Dave Woodward

Finally, for those who have questions, comments or suggestions, please feel free to leave them below!

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Adam Bass

Adam Bass

Posted

Appreciate all of the updates in the last few weeks, it's interesting to see what's going on and I've found the wait is less frustrating when you have a better idea of the department's plan and current throughput. In that vein, any chance you have (and are willing to publish) the number of passes for each TG from 2023? I recall the number for TG ENR was reported a few weeks back but I don't remember seeing numbers for the other TGs. Cheers

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Anthony Skelly

Anthony Skelly

Posted

I think that the disproportionately low increase in TGNC joiners in 2020 was due to the fact that many were just joining to try out a new hobby during lockdown and so weren’t interested in atc training.

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Adam Arkley

Adam Arkley

Posted

9 hours ago, Adam Bass said:

Appreciate all of the updates in the last few weeks, it's interesting to see what's going on and I've found the wait is less frustrating when you have a better idea of the department's plan and current throughput. In that vein, any chance you have (and are willing to publish) the number of passes for each TG from 2023? I recall the number for TG ENR was reported a few weeks back but I don't remember seeing numbers for the other TGs. Cheers

Right you are! Exam passes in 2023:

TG NC: 108
TG Tower: 23
TG App: 10
TG ENR: 14

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David Westwood-Harrison

David Westwood-Harrison

Posted

This is a fascinating read, Adam. Thanks so much for putting this together!

 

Whilst a lot of people will read this and think "Oh great - it'll take me about a decade", I think the untold story here is the excellence in training and mentoring.

Mentors do an outstanding job and bring experience and excellence to the sessions they run. The training materials (Syllabuses, Moodles, theory exams) are fantastic resources which trainees have access to even when waiting for sessions. 

If this level of professionalism and attention-to-detail was paid for, it would still be impressive. That it's provided by a team of passionate volunteers is mind-blowing. Thanks to everyone involved.

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Max Brokman

Max Brokman

Posted

I appreciate you sharing these numbers, the transparency is great to see. 

 

 

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Wojciech Strzyzakowski

Wojciech Strzyzakowski

Posted

As I like statistics aswell it was a great reading for me. Thank you for putting this together!

One question, when do you expect to fully implement new training structure? Any thoughts?

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Adam Arkley

Adam Arkley

Posted

1 minute ago, Wojciech Strzyzakowski said:

As I like statistics aswell it was a great reading for me. Thank you for putting this together!

One question, when do you expect to fully implement new training structure? Any thoughts?

I don't plan to implement a new training structure, per se, and I don't know where this suggestion has come from. GCAP will become effective on the 1st March and we will make minor changes to our training processes in light of that, but the structure of training in the division is principally not changing.

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Phil Gates

Phil Gates

Posted

Thank you for sharing the information and making it even more evident what a fantastic job the training team do. As a fairly recent S1 I can honestly say I was impressed at the professionalism of the training I received. I wasn't sure what to expect when I started things, but right from the Seminar it was evident that this was being delivered by people who cared about what they were doing. 

I do see a rather obvious potential solution to the throughput of OBS-S1 training (obvious to me anyway), although I am certain that it has probably been discussed previously and not implemented for good reasons. However, I would still like to make the suggestion, as crazy or repetitive as it might be, and I am more than willing to accept that it's not a great solution for whatever reasons arise. 

I am aware that currently S1 is not considered to be a "competent" rating, however, I believe that with the standard of training in this division we are turning out some very very good S1's. Certainly some of the more experienced S1's I have observed and controlled with, I believe, would potentially make fantastic mentors. I say "potentially" because like everything training other people is not always an easy thing and doesn't suit everybody. 

I think there is an opportunity to explore whether those good/experienced S1's could be mentors, maybe on 1 location that they are most experienced at. We know that the training delivered in this division is already excellent, so we should be confident that we could develop S1's into mentors? 

Like every training program there would need to be an element of quality assurance and with regular monitoring I really believe there is an opportunity to recruit additional mentors from S1's and potentially reduce the OBS-S1 wait further. 

Just my, probably naïve, thoughts on the subject. 

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Adam Arkley

Adam Arkley

Posted

8 minutes ago, Phil Gates said:

Thank you for sharing the information and making it even more evident what a fantastic job the training team do. As a fairly recent S1 I can honestly say I was impressed at the professionalism of the training I received. I wasn't sure what to expect when I started things, but right from the Seminar it was evident that this was being delivered by people who cared about what they were doing. 

I do see a rather obvious potential solution to the throughput of OBS-S1 training (obvious to me anyway), although I am certain that it has probably been discussed previously and not implemented for good reasons. However, I would still like to make the suggestion, as crazy or repetitive as it might be, and I am more than willing to accept that it's not a great solution for whatever reasons arise. 

I am aware that currently S1 is not considered to be a "competent" rating, however, I believe that with the standard of training in this division we are turning out some very very good S1's. Certainly some of the more experienced S1's I have observed and controlled with, I believe, would potentially make fantastic mentors. I say "potentially" because like everything training other people is not always an easy thing and doesn't suit everybody. 

I think there is an opportunity to explore whether those good/experienced S1's could be mentors, maybe on 1 location that they are most experienced at. We know that the training delivered in this division is already excellent, so we should be confident that we could develop S1's into mentors? 

Like every training program there would need to be an element of quality assurance and with regular monitoring I really believe there is an opportunity to recruit additional mentors from S1's and potentially reduce the OBS-S1 wait further. 

Just my, probably naïve, thoughts on the subject. 

Hi Phil,

This is a regular topic of discuss and I agree with you in that there are a good number of our S1s who would make terrific mentors. However, much of the subject matter taught at S1s is the bare bones to get people on the network and controlling rather than fleshing out a detailed understanding. To that end, it would be impossible for most S1 mentors to fruitfully answer questions that S1 students might ask of them - but not all!

This is not the biggest issue, however. There exists a technical limitation, in that our OBS > S1 training takes place on Sweatbox and S1 rated controllers are not permitted to run Sweatbox scenarios. This is, ultimately, a decision above my pay grade. What we do do, however, is allow S1s to mentor other S1s for their Gatwick endorsements. This allows our S2+ rated mentors to mentor at more senior ratings whilst continuing to ensure a provision for ongoing mentoring at the S1 level - a tricky balance, but it's working so far!

Hope this helps, Phil. Thanks for reading and contributing.

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Phil Gates

Phil Gates

Posted

4 hours ago, Adam Arkley said:

Hi Phil,

This is a regular topic of discuss and I agree with you in that there are a good number of our S1s who would make terrific mentors. However, much of the subject matter taught at S1s is the bare bones to get people on the network and controlling rather than fleshing out a detailed understanding. To that end, it would be impossible for most S1 mentors to fruitfully answer questions that S1 students might ask of them - but not all!

This is not the biggest issue, however. There exists a technical limitation, in that our OBS > S1 training takes place on Sweatbox and S1 rated controllers are not permitted to run Sweatbox scenarios. This is, ultimately, a decision above my pay grade. What we do do, however, is allow S1s to mentor other S1s for their Gatwick endorsements. This allows our S2+ rated mentors to mentor at more senior ratings whilst continuing to ensure a provision for ongoing mentoring at the S1 level - a tricky balance, but it's working so far!

Hope this helps, Phil. Thanks for reading and contributing.

I had a feeling this wouldn't have been the first time the suggestion had arisen. Thanks for the detailed explanation and I do see the logic in why things are the way they are. 

Totally agree about the S1 being a bit "bare bones". It doesn't seem like it at the time, but once you start controlling on the live network, it does quickly become apparent that there is still much to learn. 

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Matthew Owen

Matthew Owen

Posted

Thanks again Adam, 

One thing that jumps out at me is the huge difference in waiting times of some of the students, how has this been calculated? 

As an example TG APP, the max someone waited was just shy of 3 years with the shortest only waiting 1 year and 2 months. Is it being calculated from joining the waiting list until being awarded a place? 

Many thanks again! 

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Adam Arkley

Adam Arkley

Posted

29 minutes ago, Matthew Owen said:

As an example TG APP, the max someone waited was just shy of 3 years with the shortest only waiting 1 year and 2 months. Is it being calculated from joining the waiting list until being awarded a place? 

Essentially, yes, but we need to be more careful with wording: it's until someone was first issued a place! 

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